Anarchy of Tennis Professionals

Well, that escalated quickly.

I've sensed this quiet disturbance in the men's tennis force earlier this year. There have been patches of the 2014 season that made you question, is this the year the ATP gives us something new? Even though 'something new' came very quickly with Stan Wawrinka bagging the Australian Open title unexpectedly, it was a common exercise to point to Rafael Nadal's untimely back injury as the reason Stan won. Still, there were little sprinklings of evidence signaling the arrival of new blood and the weakening stranglehold the Big Four had on the rest of the tour.

Tele-Kei-nesis

Funnily enough, it starts with Rafa's Australian Open campaign, where he was subtly pushed by Kei Nishikori and Grigor Dimitrov in consecutive rounds. In both of those matches, Rafa couldn't fall back on his B-game to get him through. It made me think that maybe, just maybe, the Next Generation was ready to start making some noise. Maybe the oft-overlooked B-Squad was about to come out of the shadows.

As the season moved forward, the results slowly became more conspicuous. In February, Grigor outlasted Andy in Acapulco when, in the years prior, "Grigor" and "outlast" didn't belong in the same sentence. Milos Raonic turned himself into a ubiquitous presence in the quarterfinals of Masters 1000 tournaments. Kei stunned Roger Federer in Miami and was blitzing Rafa on Madrid clay before coming up lame with a back injury that forced him to retire in the final. Roger lost what looked like sure titles in Monte Carlo and Toronto to Stan and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Even 19 year-old Nick Kyrgios got in on the action with his takedown of Nadal at Wimbledon.

The men's locker room was buzzing about Stan opening doors for them and their increased belief. The impossible was proved to be possible. This U.S. Open is an even bigger feather in the Belief Cap. With just one round to go before the 36th thrilling installment of Fedole, Marin Cilic routined Roger and Kei played the role of Iron Man, having enough willpower to stand the humidity and Novak Djokovic after beating Milos and Stan in two physically, and mentally, draining five-setters. Not since the 2005 Australian Open have we had both Slam finalists come from outside of the Big Four. Either Cilic or Nishikori will become the second first-time Slam winner on the ATP this season. The last year there were multiple first-time winners was 2003.

WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN? In 2003, Agassi won his last Slam in Melbourne before Juan Carlos Ferrero, Roger Federer, and Andy Roddick cleaned up the rest, beginning their own periods at the top of the game. 2003 can definitively be classified as a year of upheaval, harbinger of the Fed Era that we are still trying to wade through. Is 2014 the signal of another instantaneous shuffle at the top?

A large fact refuting this new regime is the current cream of the rankings crop compared to that of 2003. A-Rod, Fed, and JCF were the tour's Top 3 back then, a complete changing of the guard. The Top 3 now are Novak, Rafa, and Roger, and they will likely remain in their positions by season's end. The Big 3 still reign in that department. It also doesn't help that two of those three are holding Slam trophies, with the other having made a final and two additional semis.

So there is something strong in the air this year, but expect the same names to still be very relevant in the big picture of 2015 just with these new names in the mix on Sundays. The ATP is still very much the Big Four's world and they will still stand on the majority of podiums, but, as 2014 has shown, nothing lasts forever. It's about time we start to accept the idea of other champions in this sport. One will be forced upon us tonight. Nishikori in four.

What are your thoughts? Is this the first page of "The End of the Big Four" novel? Or is this a fluke? Leave a comment!

WTA Sidebar: you are ridiculous, Serena Williams. Congratulations on 18. And commiserations to Caroline. So glad to see her back near the top where she belong.

(Image from stevegtennis.com)

B-Squad High

The ATP has, at times, been equivocated to a high school. With a bunch of young-ish guys secluded together, cliques form, rivalries intensify, and there is a definitive cool kids table occupied by Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, and Andy Murray. But let's imagine for a second that each member of the Big 4 transferred to a prep school, where do the others fall in the hierarchy now that we're back in Europe on red clay? I have a handy guide using senior superlatives and other high school words that I haven't used in years!

Stanislas Wawrinka, Valedictorian - Stan is suffering from a bit of Senioritis post-Melbourne, but being the first person to beat both Rafa and Novak at a Slam automatically vaults you to the head of the class. Not even Roger can boast such a feat (though we'll cut the Swiss No. 2 some slack). Back on clay, his favorite surface, we should see the return of Stan's best tennis.

Cutest Couple

Tomas Berdych, Salutatorian - has been the one member of the B-squad who has been, for years, consistently present at the top of the rankings and at the latter stages of majors relative to his peers. He has beaten Roger twice at Slams, Novak on another occasion, and, if weather and certain points had gone in his favor during the 2012 US Open and 2014 Aussie Open semifinals, very well could've added Murray and Nadal to his list of scalps. Despite all of this, he's still on the hunt for his maiden Slam trophy. It all comes down to playing the biggest matches and biggest points much better than he has. It made all the difference in the world for Wawrinka.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Class Clown - Oh Jo...before the year started, I tagged you as my pick ahead of your peers in the second tier to win a major this year. Sadly, you are proving me so, so wrong. Between your blow out loss to Federer in Melbourne and your horrendous choke job to a limping Gojowczyk in the Davis Cup quarterfinals, you have had a laughable season thus far. (I hope Jo reads this paragraph, seeing as I'm speaking directly to him.)

David Ferrer, Super Senior - this category could almost be called "Senior Citizen." Daveed has tried really hard to live up to his billing as the guy who actually broke through the Top 4 rankings-wise while "Big 4" was a relevant term, but his inability to snag a victory over one of those members has held him back in a huge way. Niggling injuries and semi-puzzling losses have crept their way in and his status may continue to decline as the season progresses.

Grigor Dimitrov, Skipped a Grade - Baby Fed is nearly all grown up. Impressive performances in Melbourne and Acapulco have pretty much cemented his arrival. His March Masters swing was a bit underwhelming, winning just one match each in Indian Wells and Miami, but you can't deny how good he's been this year. Grigor heads to clay and grass soon and, with a nice bump in the rankings, should make a fair bit of noise at the two European Grand Slams. It's been an inspiration watching his development this season.

Juan Martin del Potro, Left Back - Cut down once again by his wrists, it looks more and more as if his 2009 U.S. Open victory was an outlier. Even still, putting his wrist problems aside for a moment, he has had some disappointing runs at a few majors in which he was healthy. Counting his incredible semifinal finish at last year's Wimbledon, DelPo's last four Slam results include two second-round exits and a DNP at Roland Garros.

Flying high

Ernests Gulbis, Most Improved - Ernie just might make it after all. Our beloved SeaGulbis is backing up his surprisingly positive 2013 season with some great play in the first quarter of 2014. Early losses in Miami (and now Monte Carlo) aside, it's been an impressively staid year for a such a volatile personality.

Jerzy Janowicz, Good Boy Gone Bad - speaking of volatile personalities, we're witnessing quite the implosion from Jerzy. For someone who won five matches at Wimbledon last year, he's been on the winning side only four times since the beginning of February. Male JJ may have benefited from a bit more recovery time after revealing an injured foot during the Australian Open, but has charged along through the indoor hard court swing, and he's paying the price now, suffering through a six-match losing streak.

Any other superlatives to add to the list? Leave a comment and tell me who!

Knocked Down: Jo-Willy Fighting to Get Back Up

This December, I'm going to attempt to profile a few players to watch in advance of the 2014 season. Leave a comment on any of these postmortems if there is a player you think I overlooked!

I would love to see this after a Grand Slam final

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is a modern example of French men's tennis. Can wow one point, then make you scratch your head the next. Combustible, yet huggable. Attempts unnecessarily acrobatic shots, yet seems perplexed when they don't go as planned. But unlike a Gael Monfils or a Benoit Paire, Jo is the only one of the lot that has been to a Grand Slam final and has the firepower to break the Big 4. So why did he finish 2013 a small step back from where he started? Let's take a look at his season starting with the positives:

The Good

For someone who was out due to injury for a huge chunk of the second half, Jo did well to remain in the Top 10 at the end of 2013. After missing the U.S. Open, he nearly defended his Metz title, losing to another Frenchman in Gilles Simon in the final. He made a good charge in his attempt to return to the World Tour Finals  with his semifinal run in Shanghai and came within a point and a match from outpacing Gasquet for that last berth to London. JW had a solid season pre-knee problems, helped by his title run in Marseille in February. Most notable was his monstrous French Open which included a thumping of Federer in the quarterfinals. He's also the spitting image of Muhammad Ali, which should count for something.

The Bad

Unfortunately for Jo and tennis fans alike, he continues to be snake-bitten with injuries at inopportune times. His retirement at Wimbledon was especially disappointing, since he was the one name outside of our four usual suspects that had an outside chance to potentially make the final against an out-of-gas Novak Djokovic. Tsonga isn't getting any younger either; he's older than three of the Big 4. His peak window is slowly closing and Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, and Andy Murray aren't going anywhere anytime soon.

The Ugly

How frustrating is it to watch Jo-Willy play, you ask? Watch this (1:18 - 1:42):

That's how frustrating. He does dumb things during the most unforgiving moments. His affinity for flair takes away from his substantial game. He let's matches slip from his grasp. The aforementioned point does not a Grand Slam champion make. He also has a habit of completely bowing to the guys ranked above him at times when you think he could pull off the upset. He drew Djokovic in the quarters of Indian Wells, with Djokovic coming off of underwhelming performances against Fabio Fognini and Grigor Dimitrov in his two previous matches, and got dusted, 1 and 3. He dismantles Federer in straights in the Roland Garros quarterfinals, only to get blown away by David Ferrer on his home court in the very next round. Opportunity seldom knocks during this Golden Era for the second tier players, but Jo is never around to answer the door when she does.

2014 Outlook

All of that being said, I really see this being a banner year to come for Tsonga. If anyone outside of the Big 4 were to win a Slam next season, he's first on my list. He has the power, he has the desire, and he has recorded big wins more recently than the other outsiders. If he could somehow be a little less French during critical points, we might see him in another Slam final very soon.

Agree? Disagree? Leave a comment!

Call Me Crazy: Wild 2013 Predictions

I think Ivan Lendl taught him how
to take trophy photos...

Four (or three depending on you timezone) days 'til Oz! Time to get excited.

But this is the last shot we all get to make outlandish predictions for the season then gloat about how awesomely smart you are come November. Btdubbs, called this after Melbourne last year:

But never mind how great my instincts are at these things, we can predict things that are way more unlikely to happen! So put away those slightly edgy predictions and go all out insane!

I will layout three very thoughtful, reasonably risky predictions that can be pushed close the edge of the Crazy Cliff without completely falling off (because I actually believe in them):

Exhibit A Reasonable: Rafael Nadal will not win this year's French Open
Even with Rafa's knee troubles, this prediction is sure to turn a few heads. Rafa is the undisputed King of Clay and seems to be gearing up his body for the Euro swing. Could still use a little more spice, however...

Exhibit A Crazy: Neither Roger Federer nor Rafael Nadal will win a Grand Slam tournament in 2013
Now THAT'S preposterous. We haven't seen that since...since...God, I don't think I was even born yet! (I was, and it was the year 2002.) But look a little closer. Rafa has never been out of the game for as long a stretch at a time, EVER. On top of that he usually takes a little while to boot up before his game is back to where it was before his extended hiatuses. As for our beloved G.O.A.T., let's face it, he's getting old. Like, real old. I'm not saying he's washed up, but competing regularly against the likes of Novak and Andy will not aide in Roger's bid to stay fresh throughout the season (all of the other members of the Big 4 have a habit of playing in long matches) and he's also prone to going down against big hitters that litter the Top 10 (see 2012 Basel vs. DelPo, 2012 U.S. Open vs. Berdy, and 2011 Wimbledon vs. Jo-Willy). 2013 is shaping up to be quite the tough test for Fed.

Exhibit B Reasonable: Someone outside the Big 4 men will win a Slam
It'll be tough to break the foursome at the top, but this is as good a year as any for one of the many power hitters to barrel his way through that brick wall built by Rog, Rafa, Nole, and Andy over the last 7235691 years. Fed will be 32 this summer, Rafa's knee issues are well documented, and neither Nole nor Andy can make you feel completely helpless a la Federer in his prime or a healthy Nadal. David Ferrer gave the second tier a sliver of hope by winning the Paris Masters last fall. At least it's something to hold on to.

Exhibit B Crazy: One Grand Slam Final will feature two players outside of the Big 4
Bear with me for a second! Most of you will scoff and say I've gone too far, but let's look at the facts. DelPo is a Grand Slam champion and posted great wins vs. Federer and Djokovic in 2012. Berdych has beaten Fed twice in Grand Slam quarterfinals and may have been a 2012 U.S. Open finalist if it weren't for that goshdarn wind/tornado. John Isner is always a threat with his serve, Tsonga should be reinvigorated by a new coach, and Raonic keeps improving. What's stopping from the stars and planets from aligning? Yes, I understand it will take every star, planet, and asteroid in the entire galaxy, but it can happen!

Exhibit C Reasonable: Serena Williams will achieve the calendar year Grand Slam
This is a feat that would be extraordinarily impressive, even for Serena. Most people have her locked to win Down Under and you just know she's extremely motivated for a second Roland Garros title to complete her second "Serena Slam". Still, as you look down the road, it's hard to see anyone challenging her at Wimbledon and she'll be favored at the U.S. Open as well. While potentially an outstanding accomplishment, not exactly putting your neck on the line.

Exhibit C Crazy: Caroline Wozniacki will win the U.S. Open
I saved the craziest prediction of all for last, but before you check me in at the asylum, consider this: The pressure is finally off of Caro. The pundits have stopped talking about how her game isn't major material. No more Slam-less #1 remarks. And now that people have grown weary of her many shenanigans, she can go back to focusing on what made her the year-end #1 WTA player for two consecutive years. In her early days at #1, her game was fine. She was just missing the element of mental toughness. I think that this could be a defining year for Caro if she pulls her focus together. Let's not forget that she gave Serena one of her four losses in 2012! Then again, that may be a bad thing...

I WILL exact my revenge...

How crazy am I? Genius crazy? Stupid crazy? Leave a comment to discuss whether or not I should be institutionalized. But I'm warning you, I will be unbearably high on my horse come season's end.

P.S. can anyone name the four ATP Slam winners of 2002? Major points to those of you who don't have to look it up.