Anarchy of Tennis Professionals

Well, that escalated quickly.

I've sensed this quiet disturbance in the men's tennis force earlier this year. There have been patches of the 2014 season that made you question, is this the year the ATP gives us something new? Even though 'something new' came very quickly with Stan Wawrinka bagging the Australian Open title unexpectedly, it was a common exercise to point to Rafael Nadal's untimely back injury as the reason Stan won. Still, there were little sprinklings of evidence signaling the arrival of new blood and the weakening stranglehold the Big Four had on the rest of the tour.

Tele-Kei-nesis

Funnily enough, it starts with Rafa's Australian Open campaign, where he was subtly pushed by Kei Nishikori and Grigor Dimitrov in consecutive rounds. In both of those matches, Rafa couldn't fall back on his B-game to get him through. It made me think that maybe, just maybe, the Next Generation was ready to start making some noise. Maybe the oft-overlooked B-Squad was about to come out of the shadows.

As the season moved forward, the results slowly became more conspicuous. In February, Grigor outlasted Andy in Acapulco when, in the years prior, "Grigor" and "outlast" didn't belong in the same sentence. Milos Raonic turned himself into a ubiquitous presence in the quarterfinals of Masters 1000 tournaments. Kei stunned Roger Federer in Miami and was blitzing Rafa on Madrid clay before coming up lame with a back injury that forced him to retire in the final. Roger lost what looked like sure titles in Monte Carlo and Toronto to Stan and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Even 19 year-old Nick Kyrgios got in on the action with his takedown of Nadal at Wimbledon.

The men's locker room was buzzing about Stan opening doors for them and their increased belief. The impossible was proved to be possible. This U.S. Open is an even bigger feather in the Belief Cap. With just one round to go before the 36th thrilling installment of Fedole, Marin Cilic routined Roger and Kei played the role of Iron Man, having enough willpower to stand the humidity and Novak Djokovic after beating Milos and Stan in two physically, and mentally, draining five-setters. Not since the 2005 Australian Open have we had both Slam finalists come from outside of the Big Four. Either Cilic or Nishikori will become the second first-time Slam winner on the ATP this season. The last year there were multiple first-time winners was 2003.

WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN? In 2003, Agassi won his last Slam in Melbourne before Juan Carlos Ferrero, Roger Federer, and Andy Roddick cleaned up the rest, beginning their own periods at the top of the game. 2003 can definitively be classified as a year of upheaval, harbinger of the Fed Era that we are still trying to wade through. Is 2014 the signal of another instantaneous shuffle at the top?

A large fact refuting this new regime is the current cream of the rankings crop compared to that of 2003. A-Rod, Fed, and JCF were the tour's Top 3 back then, a complete changing of the guard. The Top 3 now are Novak, Rafa, and Roger, and they will likely remain in their positions by season's end. The Big 3 still reign in that department. It also doesn't help that two of those three are holding Slam trophies, with the other having made a final and two additional semis.

So there is something strong in the air this year, but expect the same names to still be very relevant in the big picture of 2015 just with these new names in the mix on Sundays. The ATP is still very much the Big Four's world and they will still stand on the majority of podiums, but, as 2014 has shown, nothing lasts forever. It's about time we start to accept the idea of other champions in this sport. One will be forced upon us tonight. Nishikori in four.

What are your thoughts? Is this the first page of "The End of the Big Four" novel? Or is this a fluke? Leave a comment!

WTA Sidebar: you are ridiculous, Serena Williams. Congratulations on 18. And commiserations to Caroline. So glad to see her back near the top where she belong.

(Image from stevegtennis.com)

Call Me Crazy: Wild 2013 Predictions

I think Ivan Lendl taught him how
to take trophy photos...

Four (or three depending on you timezone) days 'til Oz! Time to get excited.

But this is the last shot we all get to make outlandish predictions for the season then gloat about how awesomely smart you are come November. Btdubbs, called this after Melbourne last year:

But never mind how great my instincts are at these things, we can predict things that are way more unlikely to happen! So put away those slightly edgy predictions and go all out insane!

I will layout three very thoughtful, reasonably risky predictions that can be pushed close the edge of the Crazy Cliff without completely falling off (because I actually believe in them):

Exhibit A Reasonable: Rafael Nadal will not win this year's French Open
Even with Rafa's knee troubles, this prediction is sure to turn a few heads. Rafa is the undisputed King of Clay and seems to be gearing up his body for the Euro swing. Could still use a little more spice, however...

Exhibit A Crazy: Neither Roger Federer nor Rafael Nadal will win a Grand Slam tournament in 2013
Now THAT'S preposterous. We haven't seen that since...since...God, I don't think I was even born yet! (I was, and it was the year 2002.) But look a little closer. Rafa has never been out of the game for as long a stretch at a time, EVER. On top of that he usually takes a little while to boot up before his game is back to where it was before his extended hiatuses. As for our beloved G.O.A.T., let's face it, he's getting old. Like, real old. I'm not saying he's washed up, but competing regularly against the likes of Novak and Andy will not aide in Roger's bid to stay fresh throughout the season (all of the other members of the Big 4 have a habit of playing in long matches) and he's also prone to going down against big hitters that litter the Top 10 (see 2012 Basel vs. DelPo, 2012 U.S. Open vs. Berdy, and 2011 Wimbledon vs. Jo-Willy). 2013 is shaping up to be quite the tough test for Fed.

Exhibit B Reasonable: Someone outside the Big 4 men will win a Slam
It'll be tough to break the foursome at the top, but this is as good a year as any for one of the many power hitters to barrel his way through that brick wall built by Rog, Rafa, Nole, and Andy over the last 7235691 years. Fed will be 32 this summer, Rafa's knee issues are well documented, and neither Nole nor Andy can make you feel completely helpless a la Federer in his prime or a healthy Nadal. David Ferrer gave the second tier a sliver of hope by winning the Paris Masters last fall. At least it's something to hold on to.

Exhibit B Crazy: One Grand Slam Final will feature two players outside of the Big 4
Bear with me for a second! Most of you will scoff and say I've gone too far, but let's look at the facts. DelPo is a Grand Slam champion and posted great wins vs. Federer and Djokovic in 2012. Berdych has beaten Fed twice in Grand Slam quarterfinals and may have been a 2012 U.S. Open finalist if it weren't for that goshdarn wind/tornado. John Isner is always a threat with his serve, Tsonga should be reinvigorated by a new coach, and Raonic keeps improving. What's stopping from the stars and planets from aligning? Yes, I understand it will take every star, planet, and asteroid in the entire galaxy, but it can happen!

Exhibit C Reasonable: Serena Williams will achieve the calendar year Grand Slam
This is a feat that would be extraordinarily impressive, even for Serena. Most people have her locked to win Down Under and you just know she's extremely motivated for a second Roland Garros title to complete her second "Serena Slam". Still, as you look down the road, it's hard to see anyone challenging her at Wimbledon and she'll be favored at the U.S. Open as well. While potentially an outstanding accomplishment, not exactly putting your neck on the line.

Exhibit C Crazy: Caroline Wozniacki will win the U.S. Open
I saved the craziest prediction of all for last, but before you check me in at the asylum, consider this: The pressure is finally off of Caro. The pundits have stopped talking about how her game isn't major material. No more Slam-less #1 remarks. And now that people have grown weary of her many shenanigans, she can go back to focusing on what made her the year-end #1 WTA player for two consecutive years. In her early days at #1, her game was fine. She was just missing the element of mental toughness. I think that this could be a defining year for Caro if she pulls her focus together. Let's not forget that she gave Serena one of her four losses in 2012! Then again, that may be a bad thing...

I WILL exact my revenge...

How crazy am I? Genius crazy? Stupid crazy? Leave a comment to discuss whether or not I should be institutionalized. But I'm warning you, I will be unbearably high on my horse come season's end.

P.S. can anyone name the four ATP Slam winners of 2002? Major points to those of you who don't have to look it up.