Hawk Eye

Tennis season is upon us! The season's first week is a deluge of matches and an abandonment of a human circadian rhythm, but it's always a fun reawakening to the sport that we love so dearly. Good thing, too, since we should get warmed up for the Australian Open right around the corner. As we become night owls for the next couple of weeks, there are a few players I will pay particularly close attention to in Melbourne:

Victoria Azarenka

The two-time Oz Open champ spent most of her 2014 on the sidelines plagued a variety of injuries and ailments that have derailed her momentum from the previous few seasons. Outside of training, her pre-Melbourne warm up will only consist of her very tough loss to Karolina Pliskova in the first round of Brisbane. 

Per @TennisReporters, Victoria Azarenka wanted but didn't get wildcard into Sydney, where she was 2012 champ. Instead, Gajdosova, Gavrilova.
— Ben Rothenberg (@BenRothenberg) January 9, 2015

Her lack of match fitness has been a key factor in her relatively snail-paced comeback during the grass season and summer hard courts. She'll go into the Happy Slam unseeded, a dangerous opponent for any of the top women to face early on. However, given her results the past 12 months, even a cushiony may not be enough to get her back to her winning ways.

Stan Wawrinka

With another Aircel Chennai Open trophy on his shelf, is Stanimal on his way to failing even better than last year? He's one of the most unpredictable players on tour, capable of beating everybody and losing to...well, nobodies. Fortunately for him, he's in form going into Melbourne, where he's defending his title and 2,000 precious ranking points. A repeat performance can really set himself up for another fantastic season. A first-week flop, however, can be the beginnings of a tailspin.

Agnieszka Radwanska

At last year's Australian Open, the award for Performance of the Tournament went to Aga hands down. But her murder of Vika in the quarters via carbicide only made the semifinal thrashing she received from Dominika Cibulkova more disappointing. The dark cloud of "what could have been" seemed to hang over the ninja's head for the entirety of her 2014 season, compelling me to go on Aga Ranking Watch for 2015. Hopefully her new coach, the legendary Martina Navratilova, has instilled new belief, as well as a new attacking mindset, in her as she goes into Melbourne. She should get a mental boost from her Hopman Cup performance, too, taking the title with partner Jerzy Janowicz (and giving hilarious on court interviews in the process).

Rafael Nadal

A scoreboard rout in an exhibition loss to Andy Murray is one thing, but getting beaten by Michael Berrer in his opening match in Doha is worrisome. The way he lost, winning the first set via breadstick and not being able to finish, was especially disconcerting. He may be a little competition rusty, but Nadal may be the most competitive athlete in any sport, let alone in tennis. Putting Berrer away should be an accomplishable task. Without much match play, Rafa goes into Melbourne a bit undercooked which won't suit him well. However, we'll see if his first round or two can help him round into find his form.

Caroline Wozniacki

Our favorite marathoner is coming into Melbourne with most of the momentum she built in the second half of last season where she surged from the depths of the Top 20 all the way back to No. 8. Caro seems to be a different player, going much bigger on her forehand than she has in the past. Her serve is clicking and her backhand is a legitimate weapon these days. Those boosts in power haven't sacrificed Woz's trademark speed; she'll always be the toughest wall for her opponents to break through. Still, heavy hitters like the Williams sisters, each of whom have afforded Wozniacki's last two defeats, can blast the ball past her, so it's hard for Caro to ever truly have any given match solely in her hands. A more worrying and immediate concern is her now bothersome wrist which forced her to pull out of Sydney (although it can be argued that she shouldn't have played there to begin with). It'll be interesting to see where her confidence is going into the first Slam of the year. Her fitness is renowned and she will be able to stand up against the oppressive heat radiating from the Australian summer sun. She's on the short list of favorites for the title, but if she comes up against a free-swinging floater, she could be sent packing prematurely.

Andy Murray

Official kit for the Australian Open (ausopen.com)

The runt of the Big Four has been making slow, sometimes steady strides back to where he was near the top of the game. While he finished 2014 with a strong record, his performance against his brethren have been much less than stellar, including a season-ending 0 & 1 embarrassment at the hands of Roger Federer in front of his hometown fans. Year 1 of Andy's comeback is now behind him, so it's only fair that expectations return to where they were pre-back surgery. Muzz has historically played well in Melbourne, reaching the finals on three separate occasions. Sadly, his ranking leaves him vulnerable to an undesirable quarterfinal meeting against Djokovic, Federer, or Nadal. A match against any of the Top 3 will be a must-see affair, the outcome of which will set the tone for Andy's 2015 season.

Dangerous floaters: Madison Keys, Sloane Stephens, Camila Giorgi, CoCo Vandeweghe, Victoria Azarenka, Aleksandra Krunic, Dominic Thiem, Jerzy Janowicz, Nick Kyrgios, Vasek Pospisil, Bernard Tomic, Juan Martin del Potro.

Early champion picks: Maria Sharapova and Novak Djokovic. See you on the other side, with a pot of coffee, of course.

Anarchy of Tennis Professionals

Well, that escalated quickly.

I've sensed this quiet disturbance in the men's tennis force earlier this year. There have been patches of the 2014 season that made you question, is this the year the ATP gives us something new? Even though 'something new' came very quickly with Stan Wawrinka bagging the Australian Open title unexpectedly, it was a common exercise to point to Rafael Nadal's untimely back injury as the reason Stan won. Still, there were little sprinklings of evidence signaling the arrival of new blood and the weakening stranglehold the Big Four had on the rest of the tour.

Tele-Kei-nesis

Funnily enough, it starts with Rafa's Australian Open campaign, where he was subtly pushed by Kei Nishikori and Grigor Dimitrov in consecutive rounds. In both of those matches, Rafa couldn't fall back on his B-game to get him through. It made me think that maybe, just maybe, the Next Generation was ready to start making some noise. Maybe the oft-overlooked B-Squad was about to come out of the shadows.

As the season moved forward, the results slowly became more conspicuous. In February, Grigor outlasted Andy in Acapulco when, in the years prior, "Grigor" and "outlast" didn't belong in the same sentence. Milos Raonic turned himself into a ubiquitous presence in the quarterfinals of Masters 1000 tournaments. Kei stunned Roger Federer in Miami and was blitzing Rafa on Madrid clay before coming up lame with a back injury that forced him to retire in the final. Roger lost what looked like sure titles in Monte Carlo and Toronto to Stan and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Even 19 year-old Nick Kyrgios got in on the action with his takedown of Nadal at Wimbledon.

The men's locker room was buzzing about Stan opening doors for them and their increased belief. The impossible was proved to be possible. This U.S. Open is an even bigger feather in the Belief Cap. With just one round to go before the 36th thrilling installment of Fedole, Marin Cilic routined Roger and Kei played the role of Iron Man, having enough willpower to stand the humidity and Novak Djokovic after beating Milos and Stan in two physically, and mentally, draining five-setters. Not since the 2005 Australian Open have we had both Slam finalists come from outside of the Big Four. Either Cilic or Nishikori will become the second first-time Slam winner on the ATP this season. The last year there were multiple first-time winners was 2003.

WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN? In 2003, Agassi won his last Slam in Melbourne before Juan Carlos Ferrero, Roger Federer, and Andy Roddick cleaned up the rest, beginning their own periods at the top of the game. 2003 can definitively be classified as a year of upheaval, harbinger of the Fed Era that we are still trying to wade through. Is 2014 the signal of another instantaneous shuffle at the top?

A large fact refuting this new regime is the current cream of the rankings crop compared to that of 2003. A-Rod, Fed, and JCF were the tour's Top 3 back then, a complete changing of the guard. The Top 3 now are Novak, Rafa, and Roger, and they will likely remain in their positions by season's end. The Big 3 still reign in that department. It also doesn't help that two of those three are holding Slam trophies, with the other having made a final and two additional semis.

So there is something strong in the air this year, but expect the same names to still be very relevant in the big picture of 2015 just with these new names in the mix on Sundays. The ATP is still very much the Big Four's world and they will still stand on the majority of podiums, but, as 2014 has shown, nothing lasts forever. It's about time we start to accept the idea of other champions in this sport. One will be forced upon us tonight. Nishikori in four.

What are your thoughts? Is this the first page of "The End of the Big Four" novel? Or is this a fluke? Leave a comment!

WTA Sidebar: you are ridiculous, Serena Williams. Congratulations on 18. And commiserations to Caroline. So glad to see her back near the top where she belong.

(Image from stevegtennis.com)

B-Squad High

The ATP has, at times, been equivocated to a high school. With a bunch of young-ish guys secluded together, cliques form, rivalries intensify, and there is a definitive cool kids table occupied by Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, and Andy Murray. But let's imagine for a second that each member of the Big 4 transferred to a prep school, where do the others fall in the hierarchy now that we're back in Europe on red clay? I have a handy guide using senior superlatives and other high school words that I haven't used in years!

Stanislas Wawrinka, Valedictorian - Stan is suffering from a bit of Senioritis post-Melbourne, but being the first person to beat both Rafa and Novak at a Slam automatically vaults you to the head of the class. Not even Roger can boast such a feat (though we'll cut the Swiss No. 2 some slack). Back on clay, his favorite surface, we should see the return of Stan's best tennis.

Cutest Couple

Tomas Berdych, Salutatorian - has been the one member of the B-squad who has been, for years, consistently present at the top of the rankings and at the latter stages of majors relative to his peers. He has beaten Roger twice at Slams, Novak on another occasion, and, if weather and certain points had gone in his favor during the 2012 US Open and 2014 Aussie Open semifinals, very well could've added Murray and Nadal to his list of scalps. Despite all of this, he's still on the hunt for his maiden Slam trophy. It all comes down to playing the biggest matches and biggest points much better than he has. It made all the difference in the world for Wawrinka.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Class Clown - Oh Jo...before the year started, I tagged you as my pick ahead of your peers in the second tier to win a major this year. Sadly, you are proving me so, so wrong. Between your blow out loss to Federer in Melbourne and your horrendous choke job to a limping Gojowczyk in the Davis Cup quarterfinals, you have had a laughable season thus far. (I hope Jo reads this paragraph, seeing as I'm speaking directly to him.)

David Ferrer, Super Senior - this category could almost be called "Senior Citizen." Daveed has tried really hard to live up to his billing as the guy who actually broke through the Top 4 rankings-wise while "Big 4" was a relevant term, but his inability to snag a victory over one of those members has held him back in a huge way. Niggling injuries and semi-puzzling losses have crept their way in and his status may continue to decline as the season progresses.

Grigor Dimitrov, Skipped a Grade - Baby Fed is nearly all grown up. Impressive performances in Melbourne and Acapulco have pretty much cemented his arrival. His March Masters swing was a bit underwhelming, winning just one match each in Indian Wells and Miami, but you can't deny how good he's been this year. Grigor heads to clay and grass soon and, with a nice bump in the rankings, should make a fair bit of noise at the two European Grand Slams. It's been an inspiration watching his development this season.

Juan Martin del Potro, Left Back - Cut down once again by his wrists, it looks more and more as if his 2009 U.S. Open victory was an outlier. Even still, putting his wrist problems aside for a moment, he has had some disappointing runs at a few majors in which he was healthy. Counting his incredible semifinal finish at last year's Wimbledon, DelPo's last four Slam results include two second-round exits and a DNP at Roland Garros.

Flying high

Ernests Gulbis, Most Improved - Ernie just might make it after all. Our beloved SeaGulbis is backing up his surprisingly positive 2013 season with some great play in the first quarter of 2014. Early losses in Miami (and now Monte Carlo) aside, it's been an impressively staid year for a such a volatile personality.

Jerzy Janowicz, Good Boy Gone Bad - speaking of volatile personalities, we're witnessing quite the implosion from Jerzy. For someone who won five matches at Wimbledon last year, he's been on the winning side only four times since the beginning of February. Male JJ may have benefited from a bit more recovery time after revealing an injured foot during the Australian Open, but has charged along through the indoor hard court swing, and he's paying the price now, suffering through a six-match losing streak.

Any other superlatives to add to the list? Leave a comment and tell me who!

In The Baguette

Draws are out, Roger is happy, and Tatashvili may make history by being Serena's second first-round conquerer or by being blown off the court in the shortest match in history (I predict the latter)! Here are my picks for what will, yet probably won't, happen:

1. Serena Williams wins the French Open with Olympics 2012-style domination of the field. She is primed and ready to exorcise all demons from last year and should be a lock to accomplish her goal of winning a match at Roland Garros, plus an additional six more.

2. Novak Djokovic defeats Rafael Nadal in the semifinals in five grueling sets and goes on to complete his Career Slam with a win over Tomas Berdych in the finals. Nole has confidence in beating Nadal on clay once again and two surprise losses in Madrid and Rome won't break his focus for the most important tournament on his calendar this year.

3. Sloane Stephens repeats her fourth-round result. I know she is STRUGGLIN' right now, but I believe in her game and her draw is very manageable.

4. Benoit Paire pushes Nadal to his second ever five-set match at Roland Garros. Benoit is much like Gulbis with his power game. The French crowd will be behind him and should give him the push he needs to...not completely flop.

5. Stanislas Wawrinka is upset by Jerzy Janowicz in the third round. I see the stars aligning and Jerzy's game coming together to give one of the young guns a second-week breakthrough. This will be an especially impressive win given Stan's form this month.

Now that I look at it, these predictions aren't exactly groundbreaking. Oh well. I'm already anticipating an awesome third round. NADAL VS. ROSOL II.

Who do you have taking home the titles? Who do you have breaking through? Leave a comment and let me know! Enjoy Roland Garros, y'all!

Cleaning Up the Mess in Madrid

Wow, Madrid! That was the crappiest mandatory ever!

Call me an anti-traditionalist American, but clay tournaments are boring. The matches are slow. The rallies are long...and slow. The days are slow...and long. And Madrid 2013 seemed to magnify all of these issues I have with clay and put them to the forefront. Granted, this is all from my own perspective as an observer, but there were many times I was asking for the blue clay back (especially since I was watching on my iPhone at work and I can't afford to stare at the screen too long to locate the ball mid-rally when my bosses tend to swing by often).

ANYWAY, Madrid had quite a few stories, but we'll focus on the ones that were made on court.

The Stan Man Can: the Swiss #2 (but #1 in our hearts...maybe?) has joined his countryman, Roger Federer, in the Top 10 by his recent clay results, including a thorough beatdown of David Ferrer in Portugal, overpowering a red hot Dimitrov, and outlasting Tsonga and Berdych in back-to-back rounds. It's too bad he ran out of gas in today's final. I would've loved to see him give Rafa a bit more trouble, but who can blame him after playing 10 matches in 11 days over two different tournaments? I thought his crushing loss to Djokovic in Melbourne would deflate him, but it seems to have galvanized him. He's a legitimate threat to the Big Four and I look forward to seeing how he fares through the clay swing and in U.S. hard court season.

Baby Boy: speaking of Dimitrov, Madrid 2013 will be remember as the tournament where Grigor showed what he can do and how he can inspire a crowd. He broke through and took down the #1 ranked player in the world in one of the best matches I've seen in my short life. As a Nole fan, it took me a solid 24 hours to realize how great and important that match was to Grigor's growth. He has the complete offensive arsenal. We would all love to see that amount of talent sustained throughout an entire tournament.

Deja Vu: speaking of Dimitrov, his gf can't catch a break against Serena. MaSha lost, yet again, to SW in the Madrid final in straight sets in undramatic fashion. I don't think she'll ever break through against Serena. It's a nightmare matchup for MaSha and SW will never brain cramp against her like she does against other players such as Anabel Medina Garrigues (what was that bagel all about?).

Coming Up Short: speaking of Dimitrov, he and Kei Nishikori scored huge wins against the world #1 and #2 only to bow out in the very next round. Kei's loss was especially disappointing because he lost to No. 113 Pablo Andujar in a very poor display. It takes more than beating one great player to reach the top. These young guns will have to earn there places amongst the best the hard way.

Who does that?

All in all, Madrid made a few waves, but the tournament as a whole...well, sucked. Hopefully the Djokovic and Federer would have the sense to touch a racquet before their first match at Rome later this week. What are your closing thoughts on our first combined clay event of the season, not counting Oeiras? Miss the blue clay like I do? Leave a comment, or unfollow me on Twitter and delete me off BBM. Whichever you prefer.

Semis Are Set Sans Serena

Okay, no time because because the the women's semifinals start in a few minutes/seconds, but I must address a few things about what we've seen this past week:

Sloane Stephens defeats a hobbled Serena. I'm thoroughly shocked at the outcome because Serena seemed to have felt better physically in the third set, but so very happy for the teenager. Sloane is here to stay!

Djokovic wins five-set epic against Stan Wawrinka. Once again, Nole had me awake all hours of the night and 'til the wee hours of the morning. A challenge here or there could have altered the complexion of the final moments, but Djokovic prevails.

Sharapova rolling through her opponents. She must have eaten a truckload of these because she is riding the longest sugar-high ever. With Serena out, she has to be the new favorite (Sorry, Vika).

DelPo ousted early. Very disappointing result Down Under. There is a big ol' brick wall in front of him at the majors and he needs to figure out how to scale it. And quick.

Federer schools the cool kids in class. Roger has the most varied offensive arsenal in tennis history and he showed it against two vastly different youngsters. He showed Tomic what finesse was about and he outserved Raonic. The old guy's still got the goods.

Anyway, gotta run! Enjoy the rest of the Australian Open! Sure to be an exciting finish :)