Hawk Eye

Tennis season is upon us! The season's first week is a deluge of matches and an abandonment of a human circadian rhythm, but it's always a fun reawakening to the sport that we love so dearly. Good thing, too, since we should get warmed up for the Australian Open right around the corner. As we become night owls for the next couple of weeks, there are a few players I will pay particularly close attention to in Melbourne:

Victoria Azarenka

The two-time Oz Open champ spent most of her 2014 on the sidelines plagued a variety of injuries and ailments that have derailed her momentum from the previous few seasons. Outside of training, her pre-Melbourne warm up will only consist of her very tough loss to Karolina Pliskova in the first round of Brisbane. 

Per @TennisReporters, Victoria Azarenka wanted but didn't get wildcard into Sydney, where she was 2012 champ. Instead, Gajdosova, Gavrilova.
— Ben Rothenberg (@BenRothenberg) January 9, 2015

Her lack of match fitness has been a key factor in her relatively snail-paced comeback during the grass season and summer hard courts. She'll go into the Happy Slam unseeded, a dangerous opponent for any of the top women to face early on. However, given her results the past 12 months, even a cushiony may not be enough to get her back to her winning ways.

Stan Wawrinka

With another Aircel Chennai Open trophy on his shelf, is Stanimal on his way to failing even better than last year? He's one of the most unpredictable players on tour, capable of beating everybody and losing to...well, nobodies. Fortunately for him, he's in form going into Melbourne, where he's defending his title and 2,000 precious ranking points. A repeat performance can really set himself up for another fantastic season. A first-week flop, however, can be the beginnings of a tailspin.

Agnieszka Radwanska

At last year's Australian Open, the award for Performance of the Tournament went to Aga hands down. But her murder of Vika in the quarters via carbicide only made the semifinal thrashing she received from Dominika Cibulkova more disappointing. The dark cloud of "what could have been" seemed to hang over the ninja's head for the entirety of her 2014 season, compelling me to go on Aga Ranking Watch for 2015. Hopefully her new coach, the legendary Martina Navratilova, has instilled new belief, as well as a new attacking mindset, in her as she goes into Melbourne. She should get a mental boost from her Hopman Cup performance, too, taking the title with partner Jerzy Janowicz (and giving hilarious on court interviews in the process).

Rafael Nadal

A scoreboard rout in an exhibition loss to Andy Murray is one thing, but getting beaten by Michael Berrer in his opening match in Doha is worrisome. The way he lost, winning the first set via breadstick and not being able to finish, was especially disconcerting. He may be a little competition rusty, but Nadal may be the most competitive athlete in any sport, let alone in tennis. Putting Berrer away should be an accomplishable task. Without much match play, Rafa goes into Melbourne a bit undercooked which won't suit him well. However, we'll see if his first round or two can help him round into find his form.

Caroline Wozniacki

Our favorite marathoner is coming into Melbourne with most of the momentum she built in the second half of last season where she surged from the depths of the Top 20 all the way back to No. 8. Caro seems to be a different player, going much bigger on her forehand than she has in the past. Her serve is clicking and her backhand is a legitimate weapon these days. Those boosts in power haven't sacrificed Woz's trademark speed; she'll always be the toughest wall for her opponents to break through. Still, heavy hitters like the Williams sisters, each of whom have afforded Wozniacki's last two defeats, can blast the ball past her, so it's hard for Caro to ever truly have any given match solely in her hands. A more worrying and immediate concern is her now bothersome wrist which forced her to pull out of Sydney (although it can be argued that she shouldn't have played there to begin with). It'll be interesting to see where her confidence is going into the first Slam of the year. Her fitness is renowned and she will be able to stand up against the oppressive heat radiating from the Australian summer sun. She's on the short list of favorites for the title, but if she comes up against a free-swinging floater, she could be sent packing prematurely.

Andy Murray

Official kit for the Australian Open (ausopen.com)

The runt of the Big Four has been making slow, sometimes steady strides back to where he was near the top of the game. While he finished 2014 with a strong record, his performance against his brethren have been much less than stellar, including a season-ending 0 & 1 embarrassment at the hands of Roger Federer in front of his hometown fans. Year 1 of Andy's comeback is now behind him, so it's only fair that expectations return to where they were pre-back surgery. Muzz has historically played well in Melbourne, reaching the finals on three separate occasions. Sadly, his ranking leaves him vulnerable to an undesirable quarterfinal meeting against Djokovic, Federer, or Nadal. A match against any of the Top 3 will be a must-see affair, the outcome of which will set the tone for Andy's 2015 season.

Dangerous floaters: Madison Keys, Sloane Stephens, Camila Giorgi, CoCo Vandeweghe, Victoria Azarenka, Aleksandra Krunic, Dominic Thiem, Jerzy Janowicz, Nick Kyrgios, Vasek Pospisil, Bernard Tomic, Juan Martin del Potro.

Early champion picks: Maria Sharapova and Novak Djokovic. See you on the other side, with a pot of coffee, of course.

Uncertain Certainties

Tears will fall as fast as her ranking

Only hours before Wimbledon 2014 commences! What the heck will happen you ask? Here are five things that are certain to occur:

• Sabine Lisicki will open play on Centre on Day 2, entering the stadium in tears. Marion Bartoli will watch from the stands wearing Louboutins and a smug look on her face. When Sabine catches sight of Marion looking flawless, the memories of last year's final will overwhelm her and she will be carted off the field, going down to Julia Glushko, 1-6, 0-4 RET.
• Rafael Nadal will beat Lukas Rosol in the second round in five sets, avenging his shock loss to the Czech man in 2012. The match will finish beneath a closed Centre Court roof way four hours after curfew, culminating in a 13-11 final set scoreline. Nadal will later pull out of his third round match against Ivo Karlovic, citing over-elation.
• Sorana Cirstea will reassert herself as the Queen of Romania, upending Simona Halep in the third round. She will promptly lose in the following round to Tara Moore after being paid a handsome sum by a group of British journos.
• Agnieszka Radwanska and Victoria Azarenka will produce a dog fight of a match, rife with shrieks, glares, side-eyes, come-ons, and snubs. A tearful Aga will admonish Vika's grunt during her loser's press conference, while Vika deems the confrontation "hilarious" and that she was "laughing out loud" because of it.
• Grigor Dimitrov will face Andy Murray in a highly anticipated quarterfinal. The match will be awkward for the crowd as they will want to root for the next coming of Roger Federer. Grigor will get off to a quick start in the first set, fall back to earth in the second, and lose the third and fourth sets in romp after scanning the crowd and seeing Maria Sharapova eating gummy candies and judging him.

For things that definitely won't happen, here are my abbreviated picks:

Women's semifinals: Halep def. Sharapova; Azarenka def. Wozniacki

Women's final: Azarenka def. Halep

Men's semifinals: Djokovic def. Dimitrov; Federer def. Kyrgios (why not?)

Men's final: Federer def. Djokovic

Here's to hoping Novak proves me wrong. Happy Wimbledon, everyone!

Draw-some: U.S. Open Women's Draw Preview

This is it. Last major of the year. Let's make it count.

Although it is Sugarpova-free, the ladies' draw is quite tasty with opportunities abound for many players. Time to dig in!

Quarter 1

Serena. That's all.

Okay fine, there are other players here. Angelique Kerber anchors the next eighth of the draw also inhabited by Venus Williams. One blockbuster to look out for is Serena's potential Aussie Open rematch with Sloane Stephens. Cannot wait for the hyperbole of that. Sloane has to get through Jamie Hampton in the third round first.

Prediction: Serena Williams def. Kaia Kanepi

Quarter 2

Aga's quarter has a couple of land mines, but most are on the other half where they will likely be stepped on way before she has to see any of them. Her side is not completely free of threats, with Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, Ekaterina Makarova, and Sabine Lisicki occupying various places. Out of all of them, however, I only trust Makarova to live up to her seeding where I expect Aga to out-craft the Russian southpaw.

The other half of this quarter is lead by the volatile Li Na. Luckily, her section seems clear of high levels of danger. That's bad news for Jelena Jankovic, however, who has Madison Keys and the winner of Puig-Kleybanova in the first two rounds, with Sorana Cirstea as a projected third rounder. Oh my goodness.

Prediction: Agnieszka Radwanska def. Jelena Jankovic

Quarter 3

The top seed is Errani, but this quarter is all about Caroline Wozniacki. This is it. This is her comeback draw. She's been playing much better this summer and the draw gods have granted her the easiest path any woman can ask for. I haven't forgotten my pick for Woz to win the U.S. Open this year way back in January. I don't think it will happen, but this is her best chance yet to re-announce herself as a relevant player in the upper crust of the circuit.

Oh yeah, there are players other than Caro! Most of the notable ones (Simona Halep, Donna Vekic, Svetlana Kuznetsova) are on Errani's side. Really uninteresting quarter other than Woz's wide open path to the semis.

Prediction: Caroline Wozniacki def. Simona Halep

Quarter 4

All I want in life is a Petra Kvitova-Victoria Azarenka rematch. We've been teased and taunted for two years and it hasn't happened. They are once again drawn into the same quarter. Vika is solid. She will get there. It's all up to Petra, as it usually is. Will she be able to find the court for long enough to win four consecutive matches? WHO KNOWS.

Other happenings: Andrea Petkovic could meet Petra in the second round, Sam Stosur has a pretty nice path to the Round of 16, and Christina McHale could reignite the spark with against a struggling Julia Goerges in her opener.

Prediction: Victoria Azarenka def. Petra Kvitova

Semis

Serena Williams def. Agnieszka Radwanska

We've seen this movie before. Serena should dominate if her serve is clicking and isn't ailed by a stomach bug.

Vicotoria Azarenka def. Caroline Wozniacki

I really expect this to be a tough one, but Vika is just too solid off both wings and can push just as much as Caro without giving away too much.

Final

Vicotoria Azarenka def. Serena Williams

I really think that this is the time Vika breaks through Serena at a Grand Slam. She's hungry and she has the game to challenge Serena as she has proven here last year, in Doha in February, and in Cincinnati just a few days ago. I expect another thriller.

Call Me Crazy: Wild 2013 Predictions

I think Ivan Lendl taught him how
to take trophy photos...

Four (or three depending on you timezone) days 'til Oz! Time to get excited.

But this is the last shot we all get to make outlandish predictions for the season then gloat about how awesomely smart you are come November. Btdubbs, called this after Melbourne last year:

But never mind how great my instincts are at these things, we can predict things that are way more unlikely to happen! So put away those slightly edgy predictions and go all out insane!

I will layout three very thoughtful, reasonably risky predictions that can be pushed close the edge of the Crazy Cliff without completely falling off (because I actually believe in them):

Exhibit A Reasonable: Rafael Nadal will not win this year's French Open
Even with Rafa's knee troubles, this prediction is sure to turn a few heads. Rafa is the undisputed King of Clay and seems to be gearing up his body for the Euro swing. Could still use a little more spice, however...

Exhibit A Crazy: Neither Roger Federer nor Rafael Nadal will win a Grand Slam tournament in 2013
Now THAT'S preposterous. We haven't seen that since...since...God, I don't think I was even born yet! (I was, and it was the year 2002.) But look a little closer. Rafa has never been out of the game for as long a stretch at a time, EVER. On top of that he usually takes a little while to boot up before his game is back to where it was before his extended hiatuses. As for our beloved G.O.A.T., let's face it, he's getting old. Like, real old. I'm not saying he's washed up, but competing regularly against the likes of Novak and Andy will not aide in Roger's bid to stay fresh throughout the season (all of the other members of the Big 4 have a habit of playing in long matches) and he's also prone to going down against big hitters that litter the Top 10 (see 2012 Basel vs. DelPo, 2012 U.S. Open vs. Berdy, and 2011 Wimbledon vs. Jo-Willy). 2013 is shaping up to be quite the tough test for Fed.

Exhibit B Reasonable: Someone outside the Big 4 men will win a Slam
It'll be tough to break the foursome at the top, but this is as good a year as any for one of the many power hitters to barrel his way through that brick wall built by Rog, Rafa, Nole, and Andy over the last 7235691 years. Fed will be 32 this summer, Rafa's knee issues are well documented, and neither Nole nor Andy can make you feel completely helpless a la Federer in his prime or a healthy Nadal. David Ferrer gave the second tier a sliver of hope by winning the Paris Masters last fall. At least it's something to hold on to.

Exhibit B Crazy: One Grand Slam Final will feature two players outside of the Big 4
Bear with me for a second! Most of you will scoff and say I've gone too far, but let's look at the facts. DelPo is a Grand Slam champion and posted great wins vs. Federer and Djokovic in 2012. Berdych has beaten Fed twice in Grand Slam quarterfinals and may have been a 2012 U.S. Open finalist if it weren't for that goshdarn wind/tornado. John Isner is always a threat with his serve, Tsonga should be reinvigorated by a new coach, and Raonic keeps improving. What's stopping from the stars and planets from aligning? Yes, I understand it will take every star, planet, and asteroid in the entire galaxy, but it can happen!

Exhibit C Reasonable: Serena Williams will achieve the calendar year Grand Slam
This is a feat that would be extraordinarily impressive, even for Serena. Most people have her locked to win Down Under and you just know she's extremely motivated for a second Roland Garros title to complete her second "Serena Slam". Still, as you look down the road, it's hard to see anyone challenging her at Wimbledon and she'll be favored at the U.S. Open as well. While potentially an outstanding accomplishment, not exactly putting your neck on the line.

Exhibit C Crazy: Caroline Wozniacki will win the U.S. Open
I saved the craziest prediction of all for last, but before you check me in at the asylum, consider this: The pressure is finally off of Caro. The pundits have stopped talking about how her game isn't major material. No more Slam-less #1 remarks. And now that people have grown weary of her many shenanigans, she can go back to focusing on what made her the year-end #1 WTA player for two consecutive years. In her early days at #1, her game was fine. She was just missing the element of mental toughness. I think that this could be a defining year for Caro if she pulls her focus together. Let's not forget that she gave Serena one of her four losses in 2012! Then again, that may be a bad thing...

I WILL exact my revenge...

How crazy am I? Genius crazy? Stupid crazy? Leave a comment to discuss whether or not I should be institutionalized. But I'm warning you, I will be unbearably high on my horse come season's end.

P.S. can anyone name the four ATP Slam winners of 2002? Major points to those of you who don't have to look it up.