Thursday, October 31, 2013

Serena: Then vs. Now

Le plus grand
"I can't say it's the best. I can't say it's not the best. I don't know. I really don't know."

Serena just capped off a monstrous season taking home her ELEVENTH title by battling through Li Na's fast start and reeling off the final 9 games of the finals of the Year-End Championships, winning 2-6, 6-3, 6-0. She finished the year going an (adjective) 78-4, including an (adjective) 21-2 against Top 10 opponents. She completely (verb)ed the field in such thorough fashion unseen by anyone recently on the WTA Circuit.

So why is Serena unsure whether 2013 was her greatest year? Because of the year that initiated the "Serena Slam." In 2002, Serena won all of the French Open, Wimbledon, and the U.S. Open (she missed the Australian Open due to injury), beating her sister Venus in each of those finals. So was 2002 better than 2013, a season in which she won "just" two Slams? The short answer is a resounding N-O, but I'm willing to show my work. Below are a few comparisons:

2002 Serena wins best dressed


Win-Loss Record: In 2002 Serena finished the season 56-5 (91.8%). Her win percentage this season is an (adjective) 95.1%. She won 22 more matches and suffered one fewer loss. First set, 2013 Serena, and a breadstick at that.

Record against Top 10 opponents: this is one stat where 2002 Serena and 2013 Serena are relatively equal, with 2002 Serena posting an 18-2 record against Top 10 foes. If you look closer, however, her two losses were to Victoria Azarenka, the #2 player in the world and Serena's closest competitor. By contrast, she was 9-0 in 2002 against Venus Williams and Jennifer Capriati, the #2 and #3 by the end of the season, respectively (and both were #1 at certain points of the year). Her 2002 season featured three fewer wins, but was definitely more top heavy compared to 2013 should you weight them accordingly. Blame it on Bastad and the weakened Rogers Cup draw. Second set, by a hair, 2002 Serena.


2013 Serena wins best weave
Titles: the big tiebreaker for most people, and we clearly can't go just by the numbers. Serena held up eight trophies in 2002, three less than this season, but three of those were Grand Slams. Her other five titles consisted of two Tier I tournaments and three Tier II tournaments. 2013 Serena, however, bagged a YEC, FIVE "Tier I" titles, and three "Tier II" titles. (For consistency's sake, I've equated the modern Premier Mandatory and Premier 5  tournaments as "Tier I" and all the others as "Tier II.") 

Say what you want about Serena winning "only" two Slams this year, she got rather unlucky in Australia and faced the toughest grass court specialist when she was ousted from Wimbledon. Her YEC title helps make up for her missing Slam. Even if you want to put the YEC at the same level as a Tier I event, she still TRIPLES her number of titles in comparable tournaments. In my opinion, her complete dominance throughout the entire year, at every stop on the calendar, gives 2013 Serena the match.
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Of course, Serena sees winning Slams as the be-all and end-all concerning most debates (and yes, Serena, you and a handful of people are ahead of Margaret Smith Court in the G.O.A.T. debate, no matter how many pre-Open Era Australian Opens she won...), but I hope she reads between the lines when comparing her 2013 with her 2002. Not a single person this year believed they could catch her during a lull, whether it be the clay swing or in Asia when Serena is usually vulnerable. Never has she been more dominant and feared from the very first ball of the season to the very last. That intensity, desire, and focus from January through October is what made all the difference.

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