Hawk Eye

Tennis season is upon us! The season's first week is a deluge of matches and an abandonment of a human circadian rhythm, but it's always a fun reawakening to the sport that we love so dearly. Good thing, too, since we should get warmed up for the Australian Open right around the corner. As we become night owls for the next couple of weeks, there are a few players I will pay particularly close attention to in Melbourne:

Victoria Azarenka

The two-time Oz Open champ spent most of her 2014 on the sidelines plagued a variety of injuries and ailments that have derailed her momentum from the previous few seasons. Outside of training, her pre-Melbourne warm up will only consist of her very tough loss to Karolina Pliskova in the first round of Brisbane. 

Per @TennisReporters, Victoria Azarenka wanted but didn't get wildcard into Sydney, where she was 2012 champ. Instead, Gajdosova, Gavrilova.
— Ben Rothenberg (@BenRothenberg) January 9, 2015

Her lack of match fitness has been a key factor in her relatively snail-paced comeback during the grass season and summer hard courts. She'll go into the Happy Slam unseeded, a dangerous opponent for any of the top women to face early on. However, given her results the past 12 months, even a cushiony may not be enough to get her back to her winning ways.

Stan Wawrinka

With another Aircel Chennai Open trophy on his shelf, is Stanimal on his way to failing even better than last year? He's one of the most unpredictable players on tour, capable of beating everybody and losing to...well, nobodies. Fortunately for him, he's in form going into Melbourne, where he's defending his title and 2,000 precious ranking points. A repeat performance can really set himself up for another fantastic season. A first-week flop, however, can be the beginnings of a tailspin.

Agnieszka Radwanska

At last year's Australian Open, the award for Performance of the Tournament went to Aga hands down. But her murder of Vika in the quarters via carbicide only made the semifinal thrashing she received from Dominika Cibulkova more disappointing. The dark cloud of "what could have been" seemed to hang over the ninja's head for the entirety of her 2014 season, compelling me to go on Aga Ranking Watch for 2015. Hopefully her new coach, the legendary Martina Navratilova, has instilled new belief, as well as a new attacking mindset, in her as she goes into Melbourne. She should get a mental boost from her Hopman Cup performance, too, taking the title with partner Jerzy Janowicz (and giving hilarious on court interviews in the process).

Rafael Nadal

A scoreboard rout in an exhibition loss to Andy Murray is one thing, but getting beaten by Michael Berrer in his opening match in Doha is worrisome. The way he lost, winning the first set via breadstick and not being able to finish, was especially disconcerting. He may be a little competition rusty, but Nadal may be the most competitive athlete in any sport, let alone in tennis. Putting Berrer away should be an accomplishable task. Without much match play, Rafa goes into Melbourne a bit undercooked which won't suit him well. However, we'll see if his first round or two can help him round into find his form.

Caroline Wozniacki

Our favorite marathoner is coming into Melbourne with most of the momentum she built in the second half of last season where she surged from the depths of the Top 20 all the way back to No. 8. Caro seems to be a different player, going much bigger on her forehand than she has in the past. Her serve is clicking and her backhand is a legitimate weapon these days. Those boosts in power haven't sacrificed Woz's trademark speed; she'll always be the toughest wall for her opponents to break through. Still, heavy hitters like the Williams sisters, each of whom have afforded Wozniacki's last two defeats, can blast the ball past her, so it's hard for Caro to ever truly have any given match solely in her hands. A more worrying and immediate concern is her now bothersome wrist which forced her to pull out of Sydney (although it can be argued that she shouldn't have played there to begin with). It'll be interesting to see where her confidence is going into the first Slam of the year. Her fitness is renowned and she will be able to stand up against the oppressive heat radiating from the Australian summer sun. She's on the short list of favorites for the title, but if she comes up against a free-swinging floater, she could be sent packing prematurely.

Andy Murray

Official kit for the Australian Open (ausopen.com)

The runt of the Big Four has been making slow, sometimes steady strides back to where he was near the top of the game. While he finished 2014 with a strong record, his performance against his brethren have been much less than stellar, including a season-ending 0 & 1 embarrassment at the hands of Roger Federer in front of his hometown fans. Year 1 of Andy's comeback is now behind him, so it's only fair that expectations return to where they were pre-back surgery. Muzz has historically played well in Melbourne, reaching the finals on three separate occasions. Sadly, his ranking leaves him vulnerable to an undesirable quarterfinal meeting against Djokovic, Federer, or Nadal. A match against any of the Top 3 will be a must-see affair, the outcome of which will set the tone for Andy's 2015 season.

Dangerous floaters: Madison Keys, Sloane Stephens, Camila Giorgi, CoCo Vandeweghe, Victoria Azarenka, Aleksandra Krunic, Dominic Thiem, Jerzy Janowicz, Nick Kyrgios, Vasek Pospisil, Bernard Tomic, Juan Martin del Potro.

Early champion picks: Maria Sharapova and Novak Djokovic. See you on the other side, with a pot of coffee, of course.

Anarchy of Tennis Professionals

Well, that escalated quickly.

I've sensed this quiet disturbance in the men's tennis force earlier this year. There have been patches of the 2014 season that made you question, is this the year the ATP gives us something new? Even though 'something new' came very quickly with Stan Wawrinka bagging the Australian Open title unexpectedly, it was a common exercise to point to Rafael Nadal's untimely back injury as the reason Stan won. Still, there were little sprinklings of evidence signaling the arrival of new blood and the weakening stranglehold the Big Four had on the rest of the tour.

Tele-Kei-nesis

Funnily enough, it starts with Rafa's Australian Open campaign, where he was subtly pushed by Kei Nishikori and Grigor Dimitrov in consecutive rounds. In both of those matches, Rafa couldn't fall back on his B-game to get him through. It made me think that maybe, just maybe, the Next Generation was ready to start making some noise. Maybe the oft-overlooked B-Squad was about to come out of the shadows.

As the season moved forward, the results slowly became more conspicuous. In February, Grigor outlasted Andy in Acapulco when, in the years prior, "Grigor" and "outlast" didn't belong in the same sentence. Milos Raonic turned himself into a ubiquitous presence in the quarterfinals of Masters 1000 tournaments. Kei stunned Roger Federer in Miami and was blitzing Rafa on Madrid clay before coming up lame with a back injury that forced him to retire in the final. Roger lost what looked like sure titles in Monte Carlo and Toronto to Stan and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Even 19 year-old Nick Kyrgios got in on the action with his takedown of Nadal at Wimbledon.

The men's locker room was buzzing about Stan opening doors for them and their increased belief. The impossible was proved to be possible. This U.S. Open is an even bigger feather in the Belief Cap. With just one round to go before the 36th thrilling installment of Fedole, Marin Cilic routined Roger and Kei played the role of Iron Man, having enough willpower to stand the humidity and Novak Djokovic after beating Milos and Stan in two physically, and mentally, draining five-setters. Not since the 2005 Australian Open have we had both Slam finalists come from outside of the Big Four. Either Cilic or Nishikori will become the second first-time Slam winner on the ATP this season. The last year there were multiple first-time winners was 2003.

WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN? In 2003, Agassi won his last Slam in Melbourne before Juan Carlos Ferrero, Roger Federer, and Andy Roddick cleaned up the rest, beginning their own periods at the top of the game. 2003 can definitively be classified as a year of upheaval, harbinger of the Fed Era that we are still trying to wade through. Is 2014 the signal of another instantaneous shuffle at the top?

A large fact refuting this new regime is the current cream of the rankings crop compared to that of 2003. A-Rod, Fed, and JCF were the tour's Top 3 back then, a complete changing of the guard. The Top 3 now are Novak, Rafa, and Roger, and they will likely remain in their positions by season's end. The Big 3 still reign in that department. It also doesn't help that two of those three are holding Slam trophies, with the other having made a final and two additional semis.

So there is something strong in the air this year, but expect the same names to still be very relevant in the big picture of 2015 just with these new names in the mix on Sundays. The ATP is still very much the Big Four's world and they will still stand on the majority of podiums, but, as 2014 has shown, nothing lasts forever. It's about time we start to accept the idea of other champions in this sport. One will be forced upon us tonight. Nishikori in four.

What are your thoughts? Is this the first page of "The End of the Big Four" novel? Or is this a fluke? Leave a comment!

WTA Sidebar: you are ridiculous, Serena Williams. Congratulations on 18. And commiserations to Caroline. So glad to see her back near the top where she belong.

(Image from stevegtennis.com)

Uncertain Certainties

Tears will fall as fast as her ranking

Only hours before Wimbledon 2014 commences! What the heck will happen you ask? Here are five things that are certain to occur:

• Sabine Lisicki will open play on Centre on Day 2, entering the stadium in tears. Marion Bartoli will watch from the stands wearing Louboutins and a smug look on her face. When Sabine catches sight of Marion looking flawless, the memories of last year's final will overwhelm her and she will be carted off the field, going down to Julia Glushko, 1-6, 0-4 RET.
• Rafael Nadal will beat Lukas Rosol in the second round in five sets, avenging his shock loss to the Czech man in 2012. The match will finish beneath a closed Centre Court roof way four hours after curfew, culminating in a 13-11 final set scoreline. Nadal will later pull out of his third round match against Ivo Karlovic, citing over-elation.
• Sorana Cirstea will reassert herself as the Queen of Romania, upending Simona Halep in the third round. She will promptly lose in the following round to Tara Moore after being paid a handsome sum by a group of British journos.
• Agnieszka Radwanska and Victoria Azarenka will produce a dog fight of a match, rife with shrieks, glares, side-eyes, come-ons, and snubs. A tearful Aga will admonish Vika's grunt during her loser's press conference, while Vika deems the confrontation "hilarious" and that she was "laughing out loud" because of it.
• Grigor Dimitrov will face Andy Murray in a highly anticipated quarterfinal. The match will be awkward for the crowd as they will want to root for the next coming of Roger Federer. Grigor will get off to a quick start in the first set, fall back to earth in the second, and lose the third and fourth sets in romp after scanning the crowd and seeing Maria Sharapova eating gummy candies and judging him.

For things that definitely won't happen, here are my abbreviated picks:

Women's semifinals: Halep def. Sharapova; Azarenka def. Wozniacki

Women's final: Azarenka def. Halep

Men's semifinals: Djokovic def. Dimitrov; Federer def. Kyrgios (why not?)

Men's final: Federer def. Djokovic

Here's to hoping Novak proves me wrong. Happy Wimbledon, everyone!

Oi...

The Australian Open has just begun and I have no idea what will happen. Well, I have an idea, but it will likely mean very little come Day 14. Anyway, I can give you a 41% guarantee that the following WILL happen. Here are my picks for Champion and "Surprise Semifinalist":

• Men's Champion: Novak Djokovic - He's coming in with a head of steam. I understand that an entire offseason has happened and that new coach Boris Becker can throw a small hitch in his game, but Nole has been the king of Melbourne Park for three years running. I can't foresee anyone bringing him down, especially with Nadal's semi-shaky Doha title run (and his ridiculously tough draw) and Andy Murray's limited match play since the U.S. Open.
• Surprise Semifinalist: John Isner - Much like Novak, he's coming in with some momentum ahead of a solid title run in Auckland. He was fortunate enough to be in the quarter anchored by a rusty Murray and an erratic Federer. Big John's big serve should do a ton of damage and he should feel no pressure this year, having missed last year's Oz due to injury.
• Women's Champion: Serena Williams - I'm not gonna bother rationalizing this pick. NEXT.
• Surprise Semifinalist: Andrea Petkovic - She was drawn into the slightly unstable Sharapova quarter and she has a manageable path. She plays No. 32 seed Magdalena Rybarikova in the first round, but Magda is known to crap out in Slams. Petko could get JJ in the third round.

I'll stop myself here before I make myself look dumb. Looking forward to enjoying the Happy Slam and lots of coffee on weekday mornings. Sleep is for the weak. Or for the smart, whichever.

Less is More in 2-0-1-4

It's a new year, a new tennis season, and a new slew of things that I want to complain about! This year, less is more. Here are a few things I would like to see less of to make tennis more enjoyable in 2014:

1. Less injuries. They suck. One reason why the Australian Open was so lackluster in 2013 was Nadal's absence due to his health problems. Injuries and pull-outs are a part of tennis, but seeing less of them this year would be awesome.
2. Less chair umpire involvement in matches. Looking at you Mohamed Lahyani.
3. Less fan rowdiness. I'm all for cheering on your guy like heck, but when someone has been trying to serve for the last five minutes, just stfu. Please.
4. Less piling on. Some of the media have a tendency to hop on the bash bandwagon rather quickly, whether it's directed at Victoria Azarenka or Sloane Stephens or Bernard Tomic or Donald Young, then change tact when that player achieves something to earn praise. A little more perspective, both ways, really makes a difference.
5. Less blatantly pronouncing names wrong. Dear Greg Garber, it's Djo-ko-VITCH, not Djo-ko-VICK. Get yourself together. Sincerely, literally everyone remotely paying attention to tennis within the last six years.
6. Fewer articles about Venus/Serena skipping Indian Wells. Their decision is final, stop harping on about it.
7. Fewer complaints about grunting. Why that's stopping you from watching great tennis, I will never know.
8. Less courteousness among the players. Give me all of the drama. Andy Murray agrees.
9. Fewer television coverage issues. See ATP Miami final on CBS. Or only see up until it gets to a final-set tiebreaker, then search for a completely different means to the watch the conclusion of the match, with none of those means being related to CBS or Tennis Channel or Tennis TV. Yeah, it was THAT dumb.



Less violating the net...

10. Less surface homogenization. I just want Tsvetana Pironkova to make a Wimbledon final. Or, at the very least, fewer of the same names left standing at the end of each tournament year-round.

What do you want to see less of this season? Leave a comment and complain away. The Australian Open is just days away! Prepping myself for less sleep.

Slammed Shut

Istanbul and London are right around the corner for the Top 8 women and men, but let's take a moment to look back on four tournaments that supercede the WTA Year-End Championships and the ATP World Tour Finals.

What the heck happened in Melbourne, Paris, SW 19, and New York, you ask? Well, take a seat, grab a drink, and read this recap of the Grand Slams of 2013!

Australian Open

Defending champions pre-tournament with their 2012 trophies.
New photo shoot deemed unnecessary.

What happened: see last year's Australian Open. Actually, that's a slight on Oz 2012, which was a really exciting tournament. This year's Australian was a bit of a yawn. Djokovic won for the third straight year, defeating Andy Murray in four relatively unremarkable sets, and Azarenka defended her 2012 title against Li Na. Sharapova and Serena were cruising through the early stages of the tournament when they were abruptly stopped by Li Na and Sloane Stephens (with help from an injured ankle and back) respectively. There were no real surprise losses on the men's side. As something of an anti-Nadal fan, I definitely missed his presence late in this year's Oz, especially considering how good the final weekend of last year's tournament was with him in it.

What will be remembered: for the women, the big stories of the tournament revolved around Sloane. Her beating Serena was a story that lasted the entire season with many twists and turns throughout. She was also the victim of MTO-gate when Azarenka viciously stole the match from her grasps (lol). We will also remember the rebirth of Stan Wawrinka in that epic match with Djokovic in the 4th round where Stan just ZONED, but Novak dug in and pulled it out in the end. Lastly, although she ended up getting blasted away by Li Na in the semis 2 & 2, Maria Sharapova started the tournament by winning her first TWENTY-EIGHT GAMES. What.

French Open

What happened: exactly what you expected, but you couldn't help, but be impressed by how remarkable the achievements of Serena Williams and Rafael Nadal were. Serena finally won her first Roland Garros title since 2002, the kickstarter of her eponymous "Serena Slam." For someone who had always found the clay a pain, Serena's variety was on display throughout the tournament alongside her ever-present power and she found herself cruising through most of her matches (shoutout to you, Sveta).

This also happened. Who knew protesting same-sex
marriage could make a man look so gay?

Rafa's run was a bit more complicated. He got off to a bit of a slow start in the first three rounds and collided with Djokovic in another 5-set thriller in the semifinals, recovering from a break down in the last set and eeking it out 9-7. While the final versus David Ferrer was the most assured forgone conclusion in tennis history, it was a coronation of Nadal's comeback and his cemented status as the King of Clay with his eighth French Open title (fourth in a row), becoming the winningest player at any single Grand Slam. Sorry, Roger.

What will be remembered: three of the four semifinals will be remembered for many different reasons. The airtight three-setter between Sharapova and Azarenka was one of the best matches of the tournament, Serena's demolition of 2012 finalist Sara Errani in 46 minutes was unreal even for her, and Novak's tragic net violation while up a break in the fifth set against Rafa took the air out of the remainder of his 2013 (until his recent title runs in Beijing and Shanghai).

We will also remember the run of Gael Monfils and the many pictures he inspired, Venus's wonky match with Ula Radwanska, and Andy Murray's boredom. I think we'd all benefit from Andy skipping the French Open from now on. He's probably never going to win the thing and his tweets were such a value add for the for tournament.

I would need a seat if I had blown four match points, too.

Wimbledon

The world pouted with you, Rog :(

What happened: The real question is what DIDN'T happen? Rafa went out to Steve Darcis on the very first day, then EVERYONE AND THEIR MOTHER was eliminated on Black Wednesday including Victoria Azarenka (injury), Ana Ivanovic (suckitude), Caroline Wozniacki (suckitude aided by injury), Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (injury aided by suckitude), and Marin Cilic ("injury"). Sharapova joined the fray when she went down (literally; she slipped on the grass several times) on Court 2 to fellow gruntie Michelle Larcher de Brito. However, all of those exits paled in comparison to the ousting of Roger Federer at the hands of Sergiy Stakhovsky, Fed's first loss before the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam since Roland Garros 2004 (if I could ALL CAPS numbers, I would). A truly historic day in tennis. Serena would join the upset club soon after, blowing a third set lead to Boom-Boom Lisicki in the Round of 16 on Manic Monday. Absolute madhouse of a tournament.

Oh yeah, there were winners at this year's Championships! Sir (well, almost) Andrew Barron Murray made it rain and ended a 77-year drought for a British male singles Wimbledon champion by completely outplaying Djokovic in the final. There were cheers, there were blown calls by Mohamed Lahyani, there were Djokovic meltdowns, there were pointed celebrations at the media. The match had everything. I was even inspired to write down a few thoughts on Andy here.

On the women's side, 2007 finalist Marion Bartoli made the most of the messy draw to scrap her first Slam. With the Top 3 out of the way, Marion didn't drop a set (nor played an opponent ranked above her) culminating with the blitzing of Sabine Lisicki in the final. It would be the last match win of her career. What a way to go out!

Maria's DGAF face.

What will be remembered: other than everything, you mean? Aside from the above, we will remember Jerzy Janowicz's breakthrough to the semifinals, the decimation of the bottom half of the men's draw and the complete shitshow that became of the entire women's draw, Juan Martin Del Potro re-arrival for the second time in 2013, Laura Robson's good showing, and Murray leaving the entire country on the edge of their collective seats during his comeback win versus Verdasco. Off the court, this was also the tournament where Serena and MaSha aired out their dirty laundry about each other's love lives. Tennis drama at its finest. It was phenomenal. I'm slightly embarrassed at how much I enjoyed all of it.

U.S. Open

King of ... Cement?

What happened: competing with the Australian Open for most forgettable Slam of the season. Both finals were good theater, but the finalists were all but guaranteed and the winners were pretty much called weeks before main draw matches got underway. Serena and Rafa capped off career-best seasons by downing their primary rivals and contenders for Player of the Year in Azarenka and Djokovic. So many parallels with Serena and Rafa's season. Both win the French Open, go out early at Wimbledon, and come back with a vengeance in the summer hard court swing and add to their tally of major titles and improve their arguments in their respective G.O.A.T. debates.

What will be remembered: two one-handed backhands soared while one fell away. Stan Wawrinka played another 5-setter with Novak Djokovic in the semifinal, once again going down. He wasn't playing as well as he did in Melbourne, but props for ramming through Berdych and Murray, then taking Novak the distance. Richard Gasquet finally made the quarterfinals, then got all greedy and made the SEMIFINALS. He ended up getting killed by Nadal, but good on ya, Reesh. The same can't be said for Roger Federer, who is starting a new kind of streak. He lost in the Round of 16 to Tommy Robredo in straight sets in what was a confusing match. His forehand couldn't find the court and he quickly lost his first match to Tommy Robredo on his eleventh try, denying us our first Fedal encounter at the U.S. Open. Lame.

She was a little excited.

Serena killed her competition through the semis, but her fourth round match against Sloane featured probably the most exciting set of tennis in the tournament pre-finals. The match had an edge to begin with, with all of their off-court drama and whatnot, but what struck me as incredible was how Serena was able to win with her defense. Sloane was crushing her forehand, yet Serena was there for nearly every one of them. Sloane eventually started to go for too much in the second set, which was one-way traffic for our champion.


So what's to come for the rest of the year? Can Serena remain motivated and hungry to finish the year as strongly as she started (she already won Beijing)? Will Rafa win his first World Tour Finals title? Will Djokovic or Vika (or Maria or Andy or, dare I say, Sloane Jelena?) make any dent in the confidence of the top man and woman of their respective tours? We will see what the end of the season has in store, it could mean good things in 2014 for those who make the most of it!

Draw-ful: U.S. Open Men's Draw Preview

Yaaaawwwn.

Compared to the women's draw, the men's draw hardly has anything going on that will interest. Still, we press on and figure out who will lose when to Djokovic, Nadal, and Murray before we get to the juiciness of the later rounds.

Quarter 1

Novak Djokovic arguably has the toughest draw of the Top 4 seeds with Juan Martin Del Potro, one of the opening line favorites, looming on the other side. Even with Djokovic not at his best this summer, you have to assume that he will be fine through the Round of 16. Grigor Dimitrov, his potential third round opponent, may do a little more damage here than at Roland Garros, but Djokovic should be able to get past these mini-threats before a would-be-thrilling quarterfinal against DelPo. Only other interesting potential matchup is a third round clash between Benoit Paire and Fabio Fognini. I'm sure it will be difficult deciding which meltdown is more handsome.

Speaking of our beloved Tower of Tandil, his draw has a couple of players that can be troublesome, including a second round clash with the winner of Hewitt-Baker. Tommy Haas is the next seed in his section which features my favorite first rounder between David Goffin and Alexandr Dolgopolov. That will be an epic mess with beautiful ball striking and puzzling errors and shot selections. Can't wait.

Prediction: Novak Djokovic def. Juan Martin Del Potro

Quarter 2

Andy Murray should have a straightforward path to the quarters strictly because this is not the French Open. The other three seeds in his half (Nicolas Almagro, Andreas Seppi, Juan Monaco) are primarily clay courters and there are no floaters of note lurking. Moving on...

The bottom eighth is where it gets tricky for our defending champ. Tomas Berdych is anchoring the quarter. In my opinion, if New York were not under threat of a tornado during their semifinal clash last year, Andy Murray does not achieve his first major in 2012. Should be a very intriguing quarterfinal matchup, unless Stanislas Wawrinka has something to say about it. He hasn't been playing well as of late though.

Prediction: Tomas Berdych def. Andy Murray

Quarter 3

THIS SECTION OF THE DRAW IS WIDE OPEN. I'M LOOKING AT YOU ERNIE, JERZY, AND MILOS.

Seriously, the top seeds in this quarter are a surprisingly struggling David Ferrer and never-makes-a-quarterfinal Richard Gasquet. This is a BIG opportunity for a high-quality result for Milos Raonic, Jerzy Janowicz, or even Ernests Gulbis. Gulbis should easily make the third round where he faces Ferru. The winner will likely face Jerzy Janowicz in the Round of 16. Male JJ literally has no one in his section (and by "no one" I mean Janko Tipsarevic). Milos also has a very favorable draw to meet up with, and beat up on, Gasquet, who will be standing somewhere in Citi Field to return Milos's serves.

Just please, for the love of God, someone take advantage of this. Please. If Ferrer makes it out of this section, I will cry.

Prediction: Jerzy Janowicz def. Milos Raonic

Quarter 4

The infamous Fedal quarter. But Rafael Nadal has a solid draw. He owns Fernando Verdasco outside of blue clay and just beat John Isner in Cincinnati, so it should set him up to stomp all over Roger Federer in the quarterfinals. The Raging Bull has been en fuego all year outside of London, so I expect nothing less in New York.

Federer, who actually gave Nadal a match in Cincy, will want to start salvaging his year at his second favorite Grand Slam. He really should have no problems through the fourth round, even against Kei Nishikori who beat him in Madrid this year. Hey, who knows? Fed isn't feeling any pressure to beat Rafa anymore, maybe it'll help him settle down.

Prediction: Rafael Nadal def. Roger Federer

Semis

Prediction: Novak Djokovic def. Tomas Berdych

Novak should run away against Berdych. His name is name is branded on Tomas's backside right under the words "PROPERTY OF". Expect another adorably sad congratulatory tweet from the Birdman.

Prediction: Rafael Nadal def. Jerzy Janowicz

I expect Jerzy to give Rafa his first real test, but beating Rafa in a best-of-five format is one of the hardest things to do in tennis. Jerzy is still too erratic on serve to really corner Rafa too much.

Final

Prediction: Rafael Nadal def. Novak Djokovic

This will be a coronation on Rafa's season: owning the hard courts over Novak Djokovic. Nole has been struggling mentally in big moments as of late whereas Rafa has been thriving. This should be another epic. Bring the popcorn, and keep a second and third bag on standby. You will probably need to eat during what should be a 48-hour match.

(Note: I will be at Flushing Meadows Friday checking out the last  of qualifying. Come say hi!)

In The Baguette

Draws are out, Roger is happy, and Tatashvili may make history by being Serena's second first-round conquerer or by being blown off the court in the shortest match in history (I predict the latter)! Here are my picks for what will, yet probably won't, happen:

1. Serena Williams wins the French Open with Olympics 2012-style domination of the field. She is primed and ready to exorcise all demons from last year and should be a lock to accomplish her goal of winning a match at Roland Garros, plus an additional six more.

2. Novak Djokovic defeats Rafael Nadal in the semifinals in five grueling sets and goes on to complete his Career Slam with a win over Tomas Berdych in the finals. Nole has confidence in beating Nadal on clay once again and two surprise losses in Madrid and Rome won't break his focus for the most important tournament on his calendar this year.

3. Sloane Stephens repeats her fourth-round result. I know she is STRUGGLIN' right now, but I believe in her game and her draw is very manageable.

4. Benoit Paire pushes Nadal to his second ever five-set match at Roland Garros. Benoit is much like Gulbis with his power game. The French crowd will be behind him and should give him the push he needs to...not completely flop.

5. Stanislas Wawrinka is upset by Jerzy Janowicz in the third round. I see the stars aligning and Jerzy's game coming together to give one of the young guns a second-week breakthrough. This will be an especially impressive win given Stan's form this month.

Now that I look at it, these predictions aren't exactly groundbreaking. Oh well. I'm already anticipating an awesome third round. NADAL VS. ROSOL II.

Who do you have taking home the titles? Who do you have breaking through? Leave a comment and let me know! Enjoy Roland Garros, y'all!

Cleaning Up the Mess in Madrid

Wow, Madrid! That was the crappiest mandatory ever!

Call me an anti-traditionalist American, but clay tournaments are boring. The matches are slow. The rallies are long...and slow. The days are slow...and long. And Madrid 2013 seemed to magnify all of these issues I have with clay and put them to the forefront. Granted, this is all from my own perspective as an observer, but there were many times I was asking for the blue clay back (especially since I was watching on my iPhone at work and I can't afford to stare at the screen too long to locate the ball mid-rally when my bosses tend to swing by often).

ANYWAY, Madrid had quite a few stories, but we'll focus on the ones that were made on court.

The Stan Man Can: the Swiss #2 (but #1 in our hearts...maybe?) has joined his countryman, Roger Federer, in the Top 10 by his recent clay results, including a thorough beatdown of David Ferrer in Portugal, overpowering a red hot Dimitrov, and outlasting Tsonga and Berdych in back-to-back rounds. It's too bad he ran out of gas in today's final. I would've loved to see him give Rafa a bit more trouble, but who can blame him after playing 10 matches in 11 days over two different tournaments? I thought his crushing loss to Djokovic in Melbourne would deflate him, but it seems to have galvanized him. He's a legitimate threat to the Big Four and I look forward to seeing how he fares through the clay swing and in U.S. hard court season.

Baby Boy: speaking of Dimitrov, Madrid 2013 will be remember as the tournament where Grigor showed what he can do and how he can inspire a crowd. He broke through and took down the #1 ranked player in the world in one of the best matches I've seen in my short life. As a Nole fan, it took me a solid 24 hours to realize how great and important that match was to Grigor's growth. He has the complete offensive arsenal. We would all love to see that amount of talent sustained throughout an entire tournament.

Deja Vu: speaking of Dimitrov, his gf can't catch a break against Serena. MaSha lost, yet again, to SW in the Madrid final in straight sets in undramatic fashion. I don't think she'll ever break through against Serena. It's a nightmare matchup for MaSha and SW will never brain cramp against her like she does against other players such as Anabel Medina Garrigues (what was that bagel all about?).

Coming Up Short: speaking of Dimitrov, he and Kei Nishikori scored huge wins against the world #1 and #2 only to bow out in the very next round. Kei's loss was especially disappointing because he lost to No. 113 Pablo Andujar in a very poor display. It takes more than beating one great player to reach the top. These young guns will have to earn there places amongst the best the hard way.

Who does that?

All in all, Madrid made a few waves, but the tournament as a whole...well, sucked. Hopefully the Djokovic and Federer would have the sense to touch a racquet before their first match at Rome later this week. What are your closing thoughts on our first combined clay event of the season, not counting Oeiras? Miss the blue clay like I do? Leave a comment, or unfollow me on Twitter and delete me off BBM. Whichever you prefer.

The Count of Monte Carlo

This clay season just got real.

I must admit, as a Nole fan, I was already writing off 2013's Euro-clay season as loss. Nadal took home two titles (including a thorough beatdown of his primary whipping boy, David Ferrer) and lost just one match in his comeback tour on South American/Mexican clay, not to mention winning Indian Wells, his first hard court title since 2010. It was pretty much a given that Rafa would sweep through April and May without any sort of hiccup.

Fast forward through a very combative final and we are back in 2011 all over again. Djokovic really took it to Nadal at his "favorite tournament." Yeah, it would be my favorite, too, had I won there EIGHT TIMES IN A ROW.

Anyway, now that the road to Roland Garros is not yet a foregone conclusion, let's try to make sense of what could go down as we get closer to the season's second Grand Slam.

Barcelona: now this is a foregone conclusion. Nadal has won the trophy here the last seven times he's entered. His half of the draw contains a few threatening players like Berdych, Raonic, and Dimitrov, but they are all in Berdych's quarter. However, his confidence may be shaken after his dustup with Nole in Monaco, so maybe, possibly Ferrer has a chance to sneak one in? Yeah, I don't think so either.

Madrid: Fed is defending his title here, but we are back to red this time around. The blue clay of 2012 was much more grass-like than anything else, so I don't think he'll be as lucky this year. Both Nadal and Djokovic have major points to gain here and I'm sure Andy will have worked on his clay court abilities to be a factor. It all depends on how the draw shakes up. Nadal could meet one of the other Big 4 in the quarters.

Rome: the final tune up will be a good one. Nadal ran through Djokovic in the final here last year, but look for Nole to try to exact some revenge here. Much like Madrid, it comes down to where Nadal is placed in the draw.

SO, with all that being said, WHO YA GOT? Can Nole bring back the magic of his 2011 RG tune-ups? Will Roger or Andy make any noise these coming weeks? Most importantly (in my opinion, will Rafa get a protected ranking at Roland Garros? The French Open is closing in on us really quick and I have a rekindled excitement for it! Today, we saw an excellent preview of a potential final round matchup. Or semifinal. Or quarterfinal. Please give Nadal the fourth seed...

Happy Holidays!

Good ol' Saint Novak.

A very merry World Tennis Day to all!

Although I just found out such a day existed last week and only remembered it after roaming around the web this afternoon, 'twas a joyous and exciting 24 hours to be a fan of this beautiful sport.

Kudos to all the players getting involved in those lighthearted matches to spread tennis joy around the world.

Fortunately or unfortunately, the goofing off ends here. March is upon us, which means it is U.S. hard court season! Two combined events, loaded draws, and several thousand points and dollars to be awarded. Who's gonna reap the bulk of those benefits? Let's find out by taking a quick look back at an unusually busy February.

Doha: Serena is back at #1, but Vika had the last laugh in their final round match. Serena holds a big lead in their H-to-H record, but Vika has always played her tough and seems to be making more inroads each successive faceoff. Don't be surprised if Azarenka gets back to the top spot by year's end (Serena has a TON of points to defend this summer).

Dubai: Kvitova got back on track with this Premier title. The draw was trimmed down after the Doha finalists withdrew, but hats off to getting the job done. Now that she's pulled off playing well for two matches in a row, is it no longer wishful thinking that she could do it for consecutive tournaments? We'll see, but we do know she has all the weaponry to dominate.

ATP 500s: Federer is stunned at Rotterdam and Dubai. He can't seem to hold MPs anymore. The door is open for Murray, who was absent for the entire month, to leapfrog him in the rankings. Djokovic wins Dubai, undefeated in 2013. Nole's on a serious roll, 18 straight matches to be exact. Is a repeat of 2011 in store? He seems unstoppable at the moment, especially on hard courts. Nadal blows away David Ferrer in Acapulco. The scoreline may be ho-hum, but Rafa has only just started playing tournaments and is only going to get more comfortable out on court. The only question is will he play Indian Wells and/or Miami? WE STILL DON'T KNOW. It's not like IW begins in two days or anything...

I don't know about you, but I am so excited for Indian Wells and Miami because: a) combined events are easy to follow both men and women, and b) they are both in my country's time zone. Those of you who feverishly followed the Australian Open like I did feel me...

Leave a comment to discuss the happenings of February or to look forward to March. Should be another exciting month!

Remember When February Was Supposed To Be Dull?

I was really looking forward to my month off from blogging as tennis is usually quite dull, still suffering from the post-Aussie Open hangover. Foiled again by Nadal!

That's right Nadal made his return last week from a seven-month hiatus at Viña del Mar, an ATP 250 tourney, on his beloved clay surface in both singles and doubles with Juan Monaco, and things were going quite smoothly until he ran into the stalwart grinder we all recognize as Horacio Zeballos. And while I will neither confirm nor deny that I knew of Zeballos' existence on tour until a few days ago, I'm quite shocked he managed to spoil the King of Clay's welcome back party.

Nadal looked quite good in his matches leading up to the final (although he did say he was still experiencing minor knee pains during the event) and I really couldn't tell you what happened to him against Zeballos, but I yelled in surprise when I saw this picture on Twitter:

Don't get used to this image.

Nadal and Pico ended up losing in the doubles finals as well. All in all, I'm sure Rafa is both encouraged and disappointed by this week, but it seems like mostly good news. We'll see whether he gears himself up for the spring U.S. hard court Masters or save himself for the Euro-clay season. Best of luck, Rafa! We've all missed you...well, all except Andy Murray.

Any thoughts on Nadal's season to come? Will he keep up with his Big 4 brethren? Doha is up for the ladies with the #1 ranking up for grabs yet again! Sure to be another exciting week. In February, of all months. Who knew?

(edit: almost forgot, Rafa's Welcome Back Tour rolls on this week at São Paulo where he'll once again be in the singles and doubles draw (with David Nalbandian)! Be sure to keep tabs!)

Call Me Crazy: Wild 2013 Predictions

I think Ivan Lendl taught him how
to take trophy photos...

Four (or three depending on you timezone) days 'til Oz! Time to get excited.

But this is the last shot we all get to make outlandish predictions for the season then gloat about how awesomely smart you are come November. Btdubbs, called this after Melbourne last year:

But never mind how great my instincts are at these things, we can predict things that are way more unlikely to happen! So put away those slightly edgy predictions and go all out insane!

I will layout three very thoughtful, reasonably risky predictions that can be pushed close the edge of the Crazy Cliff without completely falling off (because I actually believe in them):

Exhibit A Reasonable: Rafael Nadal will not win this year's French Open
Even with Rafa's knee troubles, this prediction is sure to turn a few heads. Rafa is the undisputed King of Clay and seems to be gearing up his body for the Euro swing. Could still use a little more spice, however...

Exhibit A Crazy: Neither Roger Federer nor Rafael Nadal will win a Grand Slam tournament in 2013
Now THAT'S preposterous. We haven't seen that since...since...God, I don't think I was even born yet! (I was, and it was the year 2002.) But look a little closer. Rafa has never been out of the game for as long a stretch at a time, EVER. On top of that he usually takes a little while to boot up before his game is back to where it was before his extended hiatuses. As for our beloved G.O.A.T., let's face it, he's getting old. Like, real old. I'm not saying he's washed up, but competing regularly against the likes of Novak and Andy will not aide in Roger's bid to stay fresh throughout the season (all of the other members of the Big 4 have a habit of playing in long matches) and he's also prone to going down against big hitters that litter the Top 10 (see 2012 Basel vs. DelPo, 2012 U.S. Open vs. Berdy, and 2011 Wimbledon vs. Jo-Willy). 2013 is shaping up to be quite the tough test for Fed.

Exhibit B Reasonable: Someone outside the Big 4 men will win a Slam
It'll be tough to break the foursome at the top, but this is as good a year as any for one of the many power hitters to barrel his way through that brick wall built by Rog, Rafa, Nole, and Andy over the last 7235691 years. Fed will be 32 this summer, Rafa's knee issues are well documented, and neither Nole nor Andy can make you feel completely helpless a la Federer in his prime or a healthy Nadal. David Ferrer gave the second tier a sliver of hope by winning the Paris Masters last fall. At least it's something to hold on to.

Exhibit B Crazy: One Grand Slam Final will feature two players outside of the Big 4
Bear with me for a second! Most of you will scoff and say I've gone too far, but let's look at the facts. DelPo is a Grand Slam champion and posted great wins vs. Federer and Djokovic in 2012. Berdych has beaten Fed twice in Grand Slam quarterfinals and may have been a 2012 U.S. Open finalist if it weren't for that goshdarn wind/tornado. John Isner is always a threat with his serve, Tsonga should be reinvigorated by a new coach, and Raonic keeps improving. What's stopping from the stars and planets from aligning? Yes, I understand it will take every star, planet, and asteroid in the entire galaxy, but it can happen!

Exhibit C Reasonable: Serena Williams will achieve the calendar year Grand Slam
This is a feat that would be extraordinarily impressive, even for Serena. Most people have her locked to win Down Under and you just know she's extremely motivated for a second Roland Garros title to complete her second "Serena Slam". Still, as you look down the road, it's hard to see anyone challenging her at Wimbledon and she'll be favored at the U.S. Open as well. While potentially an outstanding accomplishment, not exactly putting your neck on the line.

Exhibit C Crazy: Caroline Wozniacki will win the U.S. Open
I saved the craziest prediction of all for last, but before you check me in at the asylum, consider this: The pressure is finally off of Caro. The pundits have stopped talking about how her game isn't major material. No more Slam-less #1 remarks. And now that people have grown weary of her many shenanigans, she can go back to focusing on what made her the year-end #1 WTA player for two consecutive years. In her early days at #1, her game was fine. She was just missing the element of mental toughness. I think that this could be a defining year for Caro if she pulls her focus together. Let's not forget that she gave Serena one of her four losses in 2012! Then again, that may be a bad thing...

I WILL exact my revenge...

How crazy am I? Genius crazy? Stupid crazy? Leave a comment to discuss whether or not I should be institutionalized. But I'm warning you, I will be unbearably high on my horse come season's end.

P.S. can anyone name the four ATP Slam winners of 2002? Major points to those of you who don't have to look it up.

Time After Time

Hey tennis fans!

We are less than 48 hours into 2013, yet there is so much to talk about! Granted, the season officially began on December 30th, 2012, but we'll just wait for the organizers of Brisbane and Shenzhen to figure that out...

The top Frenchmen on the ATP circuit are known for their flair and style, but a great deal of that pizazz comes from Gael Monfils. His on-court dramatics were missed by fans and non-fans alike, so it's great to see him back and doing well at the Qatar Open after rumors surfaced last month of him calling it a career. Even greater is this exchange with the chair umpire after a time violation warning during what would be an encouraging three-set triumph over third-seeded Phillipp Kohlschreiber:

So unfair.

Let me first say this: I feel his pain. I could be standing still on a lukewarm day and I'm sweating. Not a good look. More implicative of the tour's direction, he wasn't the first to be issued a time violation warning in Doha. David Ferrer was given notice about stricter clock-watching before his first-round match and Feliciano Lopez was called for a time violation while facing triple-set point! Crazy. Still, it's hard to feel bad for a guy who looks like this, even with something splayed across his face:



Ferrer tweeted en Español in defense of his fellow countrymen, and while I agree that that particular call on Lopez was too harsh and at such an inopportune time, we need to see more of this on the ATP. These matches are just too long, especially at the Grand Slam level. Almost exactly one year ago, my favorite player of the last 5.5 years defeated his primary rival in one of the most epic matches in history, but I would never want to see it in its entirety again. Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are the two biggest time violators in tennis history, but they hardly ever get called out for wasting precious seconds ball-bouncing and tugging out wedgies! I'm still angry at them for waking me at 3AM and keeping me up until 10:30...

So I say "yea" to stricter timekeeping. It'll move along matches and promote tennis as a sport that the casual fan would want to check out every now and again. Plus, it'll help all of us rabid fanatics who are oceans away have enough energy to sit through the occasional red-eye match. Call it the Rafaole Ruling.

What say you? Agree with the impending harshness of the umps this season? Jealous of Feli's bod? Leave a comment and let's discuss. Unlike these tennis players, we've got all day.